Climate deal 'unlikely' this year--BBC

The UK government says it is highly unlikely that a new legally binding climate treaty can be agreed this year - and a full treaty may be a year away.

Two years ago, the world's governments vowed to finalise a new treaty at next month's climate summit in Copenhagen.

Climate Secretary Ed Miliband has until now said it could be done - but now he says only a political deal is likely, echoing some other senior figures.

Developing countries reacted with frustration and disappointment.

"When we left (UN talks in) Bali two years ago, we all expected that would be agreeing on a legally binding outcome to respond to the urgency... that we were on the verge of catastrophic climate change, so we're very disappointed," said Selwin Hart from Barbados, speaking for the group of small island developing states.

"If we don't take urgent and ambitious action, the reality is that some small island developing states will not be around within a couple of decades - certainly not by the end of the century."

In the middle of October, Mr Miliband said a new treaty looked "more do-able" following a meeting of the Major Economies Forum in London.

His comments now echo warnings from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Denmark's Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and US chief climate negotiator Todd Stern that only a "politically binding" agreement can now be achieved.

Political vacuum

"We would have preferred a full legal treaty, it has to be said," said Mr Miliband.

"I think the important thing about the agreement we now seek in December is that while it may be a political agreement it must lead, on a very clear timetable, to a legally binding treaty.

A lot of people still think that we can do something that will lead to real implementation in the fight against climate change Artur Runge-Metzger European Commission negotiator

"Also, I'll be completely clear about this: I think an agreement without numbers is not a great agreement. In fact it's a wholly inadequate agreement."

It remains unclear whether the US could put numbers forward in Copenhagen - on reducing emissions, or on financing for poorer countries - in the absence of domestic legislation.

But South Africa's Alf Wills, who co-ordinates the G77/China bloc of developing countries on extending the Kyoto Protocol, suggested the real hurdle was political rather than logistical.

"A lot of people still think that we can do something that will lead to real implementation in the fight against climate change - we will spend money, we will enact legislation, we will continue in this," said Artur Runge-Metzger, chief negotiator for the European Commission.

As to when all the loose ends should be tied up, he suggest three to six months was a reasonable period.

"Copenhagen is one of the most important meetings in human history, but the politicians seem determined to blow it," said Joss Garman of Greenpeace.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8345501.stm